会计盈余能预测宏观经济增长吗？--盈余结构分析视角  

Can Accounting Earnings Predict Macroeconomic Growth?——the Perspective of Earnings Structure Analysis

作　　者：卿小权[1] 张碧涵 蔡祎萌 

机构地区：[1] 首都经济贸易大学会计学院 [2] 首都经济贸易大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2017年第8期21-50,共30页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金项目(项目编号:15YJC630102);首都经济贸易大学2016年教育教学改革立项项目(项目编号:00691654210151);国家自科青年基金项目(项目编号:71402199)

摘　　要：基于A股上市公司2007年第一季度至2017年第一季度公开披露的季度会计数据,从盈余结构入手,直接考察对净利润进行分解能否提高会计盈余对宏观经济增长的预测能力。研究发现,相比总括会计盈余,扣除非经常性损益的净利润增长率与未来GDP增长率的相关性较强;对总括盈余进行分解能提高会计盈余对未来GDP增长率的预测效力,表明对盈余结构的分析可为预测宏观经济增长提供增量信息。此外,分产业分析发现,第一产业分解的会计盈余对前推三期GDP增长率的预测力较强,而第二、三产业会计盈余对GDP预测的增量贡献在前推两期较为突出。本文的研究结果不仅为"会计盈余与GDP预测"补充了新的经验证据,也能为政府部门适时调整产业经济政策提供决策支持。The article started with the earnings structure discusses whether earnings decomposition makes accounting earnings more helpful to the forecast of macroeconomic growth, based on the quarterly accounting data, from the first season in 2007 to the first season in 2017, disclosed by fisted corporations in A-share of China. According to the research, compared to the total earnings, the growth rate of net income after extraordinary gains and losses has stronger correlated relationship with the future Gross Domestic Product （GDP） growth rate. The decomposition of the eamings can improve the predictive effect of accounting earnings on future GDP growth rates, which means the structure of accounting earnings has an incremental information contribution to the forecast of future GDP growth.Also, according to the industrial analysis, the earning decomposition of the primary industry can provide stronger incremental contribution to the forecast of three-period-advanced GDP growth, while the earning decomposition of secondary industry and tertiary industry have an outstanding incremental contribution to the forecast of two-period-advanced GDP growth. The results of the article not only provide the latest evidences of the ＂accounting earnings and GDP forecast＂ but also give endorsement for government departments to timely adjust industrial economic policies.

关 键 词：会计盈余 宏观经济增长 盈余结构 增量信息 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]