气候因素对水稻单产影响的实证分析——基于湖北农户层面的分层模型  

An Empirical Analysis of Climatic Factors Impact on Rice Yield——Based on the Hierarchical Model at Household Level

作　　者：尹朝静 李谷成[2] 高雪[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2017年第8期1433-1444,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(71461010701);国家自然科学基金项目(71273103);国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才支持计划~~

摘　　要：温度、降水及高温热害等气候条件与水稻生产息息相关。论文基于2003—2011年湖北农户层面的2 610个样本数据及气象数据,在考察湖北地区水稻生长期高温热害时空变化特征的基础上,建立了水稻单产及其影响因素的分层模型,重点探讨了温度、降水、极端高温等气候因素对湖北水稻单产的影响,并检验了温度、降水对水稻单产的非线性影响。研究发现,湖北省高温热害呈现明显的时空变化特征。2003—2011年湖北省高温热害呈先降后增的变化趋势,伴随"V"型波动。空间上,高温热害在鄂中和鄂东地区比较严重,鄂西地区和江汉平原则相对更轻。另一方面,气候因素对水稻单产的影响存在明显差异。温度对水稻单产具有显著的促进作用,且两者间存在显著的倒"U"关系,降水对水稻单产的影响并不显著,而高温热害对水稻单产具有显著的负向影响。另外,机械、劳动等要素投入与农田水利等基础设施建设能够显著提高水稻单产。因此,加强对湖北省气象因素的预警及预报,改善农田水利设施、优化播种期、选择适宜品种等方式对于提高水稻单产具有重要意义。Climatic conditions, such as temperature, precipitation and high temperature damage, are closely related to rice yield. Based on 2 610 sampled data from farmer households and meteorological data in Hubei Province during 2003-2011, the spatial-temporal variations of heat damage in rice growing period were studied and a hierarchical model about rice yield and its factors was established in order to find the effects of temperature, precipitation and heat damage on rice yield as well as the nonlinear relations. The results are as follows. High temperature damage shows obvious spatial and temporal variation in Hubei Province.Temporally, high temperature damage shows a trend which first decline and then rise. Spatially,it is more serious in central and eastern regions, but less serious in western part and Jianghan Plain. Climate factors have obviously different impacts on rice yield, while high temperature harm has a significant negative effect on rice yield, and there is a significant inverted＂U＂relationship between the temperature and the rice yield. The influence of precipitation on rice yield is not significant. Besides, the input such as machinery and labor, and infrastructures such as irrigation, can improve rice yield significantly. Therefore, we can enhance the rice yield in Hubei Province by ways of strengthening meteorological disaster alarming and forecasting,improving farmland water conservancy facilities, optimizing sowing and selecting suitable varieties.

关 键 词：温度 降水 高温热害 分层模型 水稻单产 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]