珠海市不同活动场所MSM规模估计的研究  

Estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men in different venues of Zhuhai city

作　　者：周毅[1] 刘亚薇[1] 贺喜 黄珊子 李晓凤[1] 代文灿[1] 

机构地区：[1]珠海市疾病预防控制中心,珠海519060 [2]珠海旭同志愿服务中心,珠海519060

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2017年第8期730-733,共4页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：广东省医学科学技术研究项目(B2015109)

摘　　要：目的了解珠海市实体活动场所和虚拟活动场所男男性行为者(MSM)的人群规模,为制定艾滋病干预措施提供依据。方法利用单样本人群规模估计法(LMS法)和捕获-再捕获法估计珠海市实体场所和虚拟场所的MSM人群规模。结果利用LMS法估计珠海市实体场所MSM的人群规模为5 767人(3 718~8 053人),虚拟场所为18 734人(16 925~20 541人),校正结果为14 753人(13 328~16 176人)。利用捕获-再捕获法估计MSM的人群规模为17 089人(10 742~23 436人)。结论珠海市MSM规模较大,虚拟场所的MSM人数远高于实体场所。应重视在互联网等虚拟场所实施有针对性的艾滋病防制策略。Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men（MSM）in Zhuhai city.Methods The single sample（LMS method）and capture-recapture method were used to estimate the size of MSM population.Results The estimated population size with LMS method was 5767,with 95% CI from 3718 to 8053in actual venues and,1 4753,with 95% CI from 13328 to 16176,in virtual venues.The size was estimated as 17089 with capture-recapture method,with 95% CI from 10742 to 23436.Conclusion The size of MSM population is large in Zhuhai,and the number of MSM population is more in virtual venues than in actual venues.Specific intervention strategy should be strengthened targeted to MSM for AIDS prevention.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 单样本人群规模估计法 捕获-再捕获法 规模估计 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学]