北京就业人口增长与轨道交通动态影响:基于DSP模型的研究  

Employment Growth in Beijing and Dynamic Influence of Rail Transit:A Case Study Based on DSP Model

作　　者：周文通[1] 孙铁山[1] 陆军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与发展》2017年第4期22-29,40,共9页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371005);国家社会科学基金项目(11AZD093)

摘　　要：城市微观经济主体基于理性预期,可能对轨道交通网络扩张迅速做出反应;由于微观"刚性"的存在,微观主体的调整也可能是滞后的。以地面交通设施为参照,基于LISA分析和动态空间面板(DSP)模型,探讨轨道交通设施对北京不同行业就业人口增长的动态影响。结果表明:(1)对教育、卫生及金融业就业人口而言,轨道交通建设的促进作用是立竿见影的,而地面交通设施影响不显著。(2)对制造业和居民服务业就业人口而言,轨道交通影响不显著,地面交通的促进作用一部分是即时的,一部分是持续的。(3)对零售业就业和总就业来说,轨道交通和地面交通的动态影响,介于上述两种情况之间。Urban micro -economic agents could or could not promptly react to the rail transit network expansion according to different theories. Based on LISA analysis and dynamic spatial panel （DSP） model, this paper discusses whether rail transit development has dynamic influence on sector -level employment growth in Beijing, compared with ground transportation development. The results show： （ 1 ） rail transit development in Beijing has immediate influence on education, healthcare, finance sectors＇ employment ; the influence of ground transportation is not significant. （2） in terms of manufacturing and residential service sectors＇ employment,the benefit from Beijing rail transit network is not significant;the benefit from motorway network is partially prompt and partially persistent. （3） the dynamic influences of subway and motorway system on retail employment and total employment of Beijing fall in between the above two situations.

关 键 词：就业人口 动态空间面板 轨道交通 地面交通 

分 类 号：C913.32[经济管理]