间日疟疫情与气象因素的广义相加模型研究  

Generalized additive model of Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence and meteorological factors

作　　者：郑金鑫[1,2] 史本云 杨国静[1,2,4,5] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所,无锡214064 [2]江南大学公共卫生研究中心,无锡214122 [3]杭州电子科技大学,杭州310018 [4]瑞士热带病研究所流行病学与公共卫生学院 [5]巴塞尔大学

出　　处：《中国人兽共患病学报》2017年第8期674-679,共6页Chinese Journal of Zoonoses

基　　金：国际发展研究中心(IDCR)(No.105509-00001002-024&108100-001);国家自然科学基金(No.81573261);江苏省科技厅项目(No.BM2015024);国家科技计划(No.2012ZX10004-220)联合资助~~

摘　　要：目的探讨云南省腾冲地区疟疾疫情与气象因素之间的关系,以解释气象因素在疟疾传播与流行中的作用,为采取针对性的预防措施提供理论依据。方法根据中国疾病预防控制中心提供的2005-2010年腾冲县间日疟月发病数据以及收集同期该地月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温、月降雨量、月平均相对湿度、月最小相对湿度等气象资料,运用Pearson相关分析方法分析疟疾发病例数与气象因素的相关性,采用广义相加模型分析气象因素及媒介能量与疟疾发病之间的关系。结果最低气温、平均相对湿度及最小相对湿度与本地疟疾发病间存在较弱的正相关关系;媒介能量、相对湿度与疟疾发病间存在较复杂的非线性关系。当媒介能量>10时,呈现正效应,并随媒介能量的增加对疟疾发病的正效应逐渐增强;当平均相对湿度在55%~70%之间时,对疟疾发病产生正效应,但相对湿度>70%时,对本地疟疾发病的效应值降低。结论广义相加模型能够较好地解释气象因素与本地疟疾发病之间的关系,媒介能量、相对湿度与疟疾疫情间存在着较为复杂的非线性关系。This paper aims to find out the impacts of meteorological factors on malaria transmission by exploring the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors in Tengchong county,so as to develop malaria control strategy.Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence data and meteorological data including monthly mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,rainfall,relative humidity,and minimum humidity in Tengchong County,Yunnan from2005 to 2010were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and China Meteorological Administration.The correlation between malaria incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis.The generalized additive model（GAM）was applied to investigate the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors.Results showed that there was a weak positive correlation between minimum temperature,mean relative humidity as well as minimum relative humidity and local malaria incidences.While a complex nonlinear relationship between the vectorial capacity,relative humidity and the incidence of malaria was detected.Malaria transmission increases when the vectorial capacity was greater than 10（VCAP〉10）or the average relative humidity was between 55% and 70%.The malaria transmission declines when relative humidity above 70%.The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of local malaria is well explained by GAM,and there is a complex nonlinear relationship between vectorial capacity,relative humidity and malaria incidence.

关 键 词：疟疾 广义相加模型 气象因素 媒介能量 

分 类 号：R382.3[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]