基于Markov模型的多状态不可修元件可靠性评估  

Markov Model Based Reliability Assessment of Nonrepairable Element with Multiple States

作　　者：李志强 徐廷学 董琪 刘玉东[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学 [2]中国人民解放军95080部队

出　　处：《电光与控制》2017年第9期58-63,共6页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61571454;51605487)

摘　　要：运用元件多状态可靠性理论建模可以克服传统二元模型进行可靠性评估造成信息遗失的缺点,提高评估结果的准确性。针对现有模型主要集中于元件渐变失效研究的现状,引入Markov过程后,阐述了元件多状态的定义,在元件多状态连续时间Markov过程推导的基础上,分别提出了元件发生渐变失效和突变失效的状态转移可靠性模型。并以某导弹延迟活门为例,建立同时发生渐变失效和突变失效的状态转移微分方程,确定了元件在指定水平下的可靠度函数,通过仿真获得了元件在确定时刻的可靠度,为基层级维修单位制定保障决策提供依据。Modeling on the basis of reliability theory of multi-state element overcomes the shortage of traditional binary reliability model of information loss, and improves the accuracy of assessment. The existing models mainly focus on the analysis of elements with gradual failures. After Markov processing is introduced, definition of multi-state element is given in detail. The continuous-time Markov processing in element state- transition is described, based on which the state-transition reliability models for both gradual failures and mutational failures of elements are proposed. Taking the delay valve of a certain type of missile as an example, the state-transition differential equations with gradual failures and mutational failures happening simultaneously are established, and the reliability functions of the delay valve at a certain demand level are determined. The reliability of the element at determined moment is obtained, which can supply a reference for making maintenance and support decisions.

关 键 词：多状态元件 可靠性评估 MARKOV过程 渐变失效 突变失效 状态转移 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]