基于工程量清单计价模式的输变电工程造价风险评估模型研究  

Research on cost risk assessment model of power transmission and transformation project based on bill-of-quantity valuation mode

作　　者：周昊[1] 钱亦雯 王闰瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力公司南京供电公司,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《现代电子技术》2017年第18期23-25,28,共4页Modern Electronics Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60673072)

摘　　要：现行的工程量清单计价模式易导致施工方报价不平衡,从而使建设管理单位发生超概算事件。在深入分析施工单位投标策略以及建设管理部门所面临风险的基础上,构建不平衡报价最优模型,以此得出施工单位报价,然后利用蒙特卡洛方法建立输变电工程造价风险评估模型,并对所建模型进行计算机仿真,得出输变电工程造价风险,并根据风险大小来确定需要采取的措施以规避风险或者减少超概算情况。The current bill-of-quantity valuation mode is prone to result in unbalanced quotation of constructors, which leads to over-budgetary estimation events in terms of construction management units. In this paper, based on the in-depth analy- sis of the bidding strategies of construction units and the risks faced by the construction management departments, an optimal model of unbalanced quotation is constructed to obtain the quotations of the construction units. The Monte Carlo method is used to build the risk assessment model of the power transmission and transformation project, and the model is simulated by the com- puter to obtain the cost risk of the power transmission and transformation project, and then determine what measures need to be taken to avoid risks or reduce the over-budgetary estimations.

关 键 词：工程量清单计价模式 输变电工程 蒙特卡罗法 风险评估模型 超概算事件 

分 类 号：TN913-34[电子电信—通信与信息系统] TP393[电子电信—信息与通信工程]