基于变权未确知测度理论的西部欠发达地区生态风险评价研究  

Risk Assessment on Ecosystem in Western Underdeveloped Region Based on Variable Weighting-Uncertainty Measurement Theory

作　　者：邵佳[1,2] 黄渊基[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]吉首大学商学院,湖南吉首416000 [3]湖南省社会科学界联合会科研组织处,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2017年第5期26-33,共8页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金西部项目"区域生态风险预警及调控研究"(16YBX032);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目"武陵山连片特困区城镇化与生态风险的交互效应及政策研究";生态旅游湖南省重点实验室开放基金课题"生态旅游区生态安全预警机制研究";湖南省社会科学评审委员会课题"湖南省重点生态功能区生态风险预警及政策模拟研究"(XSP17YB2C145)

摘　　要：在西部欠发达地区开展生态风险评价研究,探究生态风险警情演变趋势,对促进西部欠发达地区生态文明建设具有重要的现实意义。文章将变权重理论与未确知测度理论引入区域生态风险评价模型,对西部欠发达地区湘西自治州生态风险进行综合评价,研究结果表明:在2007-2015年间湘西自治州所属各县市生态风险警情得到一定程度缓解,生态环境逐步得到改善,生态系统的服务功能逐步得到恢复,其中花垣县、保靖县、泸溪县、永顺县等地的生态风险警情从巨警、重警调节为中警,吉首市、凤凰县、古丈县等地的生态风险警情从中警调节为轻警,评价结果总体上与湘西自治州实际发展情况相符。Evaluation of ecological risk and exploration of ecological risk trend have a very important signifi- cance for promoting the ecological civilization construction in underdeveloped region in west area. The re- gional ecological risk assessment model, which combined the variable weight theory with the uncertainty measurement theory, is introduced in this paper. By using this method, the comprehensive ecological risk degrees are calculated and the grades of regional ecological risk are determined. The results show that the ecological risk has been eased, the environment has been gradually improved and the ecosystem functions has been gradually recovered during the period of 2007-2015 in Xiangxi autonomous prefecture. Specifically, the great risk level and the large risk level have been changed into the normal risk level in Huayuan county,Baojing county,Luxi county and Yongshun county. The normal risk level have been changed into the small risk level in Jishou city,Fenghuang county and Guzhang county. The evaluation results are con- sistent with the actual situation in Xiangxi autonomous prefecture.

关 键 词：西部欠发达地区 生态风险评价 未确知测度理论 湘西自治州 

分 类 号：F127.4[经济管理—世界经济]