城市轨道交通BOT项目补偿数量仿真模型  

A Simulation Model for Subsidies of Urban Rail Transit BOT Project

作　　者：吴贞瑶 帅斌[1] 胡鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2017年第4期97-104,共8页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家铁路局科技研究开发计划课题(KF2014-041)~~

摘　　要：城市轨道交通项目的建设和运营成本较高,而票价相对较低,为了激励私营企业进入,在采用BOT模式时,政府需要实施一定数量的补偿.本文在项目社会经济效益的基础上,提出了私营企业和政府部门双方的投资基准条件,通过区分确定性和不确定性参数,构建了资金补偿数量的蒙特卡洛仿真模型,并以北京地铁4号线为例,分析得到了该BOT项目的最优补偿数量和不确定性参数对私营企业、政府部门双方净现值的影响程度.该方法可应用于政府部门的补偿决策,并可推广应用到市政基础设施建设等项目上.In order to encourage private enterprises invest urban rail transit, government usually gives some subsidies for them, because of the high cost of construction and operation, while the price is low. The Monte Carlo simulation model for subsidies is built, through distinguishing the uncertain parameters and deterministic parameters, while investment conditions of private enterprises and government are considered. Finally, Beijing metro line 4 is taken as an example, the optimal subsidies of the BOT project is calculated, the influence of uncertain factors on both private enterprises and government is analyzed. The method can be applied to the compensation decision of the government department, and it can be applied to the construction of municipal infrastructure projects.

关 键 词：交通运输经济 补偿数量 蒙特卡洛仿真 城市轨道交通 BOT 

分 类 号：F294.3[经济管理—国民经济]