陕西长武塬区蒸发皿蒸发量影响因子及预测  

Prediction and Analysis of Factors Affecting Pan Evaporation in Changwu Tableland of Shaanxi Province

作　　者：崔亚强[1] 朱元骏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《干旱气象》2017年第4期575-580,597,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院西部之光项目和中国科学院重点部署项目(KFZD-SW-306)共同资助

摘　　要：以长武农业生态试验站2007—2015年的蒸发皿蒸发量与气象因子进行灰色关联和主成分分析,研究不同时间尺度下影响蒸发皿蒸发的主要因子。结果表明:年尺度下,温度、水汽压、气压和日照时数是影响蒸发皿蒸发量的主要因子;季节尺度下,影响蒸发皿蒸发的主要因素表现为:春季受日照时数和温度的影响,夏季受温度和气压的影响,秋季和冬季受日照时数和水汽压的影响;月尺度下,温度、日照时数、气压是影响蒸发皿蒸发的重要因子。基于主成分分析方法和多元线性回归分析法建立了蒸发皿蒸发的预测公式,预测的相对误差为0.45%~90%,均方根误差为5.56 mm。Based on the data of pan evaporation at Changwu Agro-ecological Station（CWA） and meteorological factors during 2007-2015,the dominant factors affecting pan evaporation were analyzed at different time scales using the methods of grey correlation and principal component analysis. Results showed that temperature,vapor pressure,air pressure and sunshine duration were main factors influencing pan evaporation at annual time scale. At seasonal scale,moreover,the sunshine duration and temperature were dominant factors in spring,for summer,they were temperature and air pressure,and for autumn and winter,they were sunshine duration and vapor pressure,respectively. Temperature,sunshine duration and air pressure were dominant factors which affected pan evaporation at monthly scale. Based on the principal component analysis and the multiple linear regression analysis,a formula was established to predict pan evaporation and the result owned a relative error ranging from 0. 45% to 90%,and root mean square error of the prediction was 5. 56 mm.

关 键 词：长武塬区 蒸发皿蒸发量 关联度 主成分分析 影响因子 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]