增加政府转移支付是否会有助于改善生育率——基于OECD国家的门槛回归模型检验  

Will Increasing Government Transfer Payments Improve the Fertility Level? An Application of Threshold Regression Model Based on OECD Country

作　　者：丁宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2017年第4期59-72,共14页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：本研究的主要目的是通过门槛回归模型来检验增加政府转移支付是否有助于改善生育率,并且评估不同解释变量对生育率的影响及长期经济发展的可行性。本研究首先梳理影响生育率变量的相关文献及实证研究,再通过Hansen(1996,2000)的门槛回归模型,考虑不同解释变量(人均GDP增长率、转移支付、税式支出、失业率、死亡率、教育支出及移入人口)分别对生育率的相关显著性影响,对OECD国家的数据进行实证检验。实证结果显示,实际人均GDP增长率、失业率和死亡率均与生育率呈现显著负相关关系,而提高税式支出则能增加生育率水平;教育支出对于生育率的影响存在不确定性,实证结果显示,在小于等于门槛值时和生育率为负相关,但是大于门槛值时则为正相关;转移支付对生育率的影响,在小于等于门槛值时为正相关,但是大于门槛值时为负相关。从长期考虑,应提高转移支付,增加教育补贴和减税措施,改善日益下降的生育率水平。The main purpose of this study is to examine whether the increase in different government transfer payments will help to improve fertility through the threshold regression model in OECD countries. The threshold variable is set as government transfer payments,and seven explanatory variables are set as growth rate of per capita GDP（GDP,transfer expenditure,tax expenditures,unemployment,mortality rate,education expenditure and migrate）. The empirical results show that the growth rate of real GDP per capita has negative effect on fertility,and tax expenditures positively affect the fertility. But unemployment and mortality rate have negative effect;However,the effect of education spending changes from positive to negative as the transfer payments get higher. Therefore,we can conclude that the transfer payments increase will cause different effect of the explanatory variables on fertility. If we want to picture out the comprehensive view of the reason to affect the fertility,the threshold effect should be considered in our model.

关 键 词：生育率 转移支付 税式支出 门槛回归 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学] F811.4