贸易自由化对中国碳排放影响的评估和预测——基于GTAP-MRIO模型和GTAP-E模型的实证研究  

Assessment and Prediction of the Impact of Trade Liberalization on China's Carbon Emission: Empirical Studies Based on the GTAP-MRIO Model and the GTAP-E Model

作　　者：余丽丽[1] 彭水军[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸研究所 [2]厦门大学经济学院,361005

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2017年第8期121-130,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"气候变化与国际贸易问题研究"(13&ZD167);国家自然科学基金面上项目"国际贸易的碳排放区域转移效应评估;形成机理及中国的碳排放责任研究"(71373218);厦门大学人文社会科学创新团队"国际贸易与产业发展"项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;编号20720171001)

摘　　要：文章首先基于GTAP数据库构建了GTAP-MRIO模型,对2004-2011年期间中国对外贸易的碳排放转移效应进行实证评估。结果发现,研究期间中国为了满足外国最终需求引致大量碳排放净转入,且中国净转入排放主要流向美、欧、日三大发达经济体,凸显"发达国家消费与中国污染"的典型事实。其次,进一步利用GTAP-E模型对未来贸易自由化进程对中国的宏观经济以及碳排放的潜在影响进行预测模拟,结果表明,"多边贸易自由化"对全球的低碳经济发展更为有利,将导致世界各主要经济体(欧盟除外)的碳排放强度下降。对中国而言,"单边贸易自由化"和"多边贸易自由化"将导致中国经济总量和碳排放同步增加,碳排放强度维持基本不变,比较而言,参与"多边自由化"对中国的贸易条件改善、实际GDP增长和消费者福利改善更为有利;而"多边贸易自由化+TPP+TTIP"对中国构成了明显的贸易歧视,导致中国贸易条件和消费者福利显著恶化,经济总量明显下降的同时碳排放总量及碳排放强度均上升。Firstly, this paper constructs a GTAP-MRIO model to evaluate China＇s carbon emission transfer through trade, and it finds that during 2004-2011 China is the country with net inward-transferredcarbon emissions. Besides, China＇s inward-transferred emission is mainly induced by the final demand of the United States, Europe and Japan, highlighting the fact that consumption in developed countries but pollution in China. Secondly, combined with the trend of trade liberalization, we design three different trade liberalization policies. Finally,we use GTAP-E model to predict the potential impact of different trade liberalization policies on the economy and carbon emissions. It finds that ＂Multilateral Liberalization＂ is more favorable to the development of low-carbon economy in China and the whole world. Specifically,＂unilateral liberalization＂and＂multilateral liberalization＂would increase China＇s real GDP and carbon emissions, and decrease China＇s carbon emission intensity gradually. However, ＂multilateral liberalization ＋ TPP ＋ TTIP＂ would lead China＇s real GDP to decline, and China＇s carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity rise.

关 键 词：贸易自由化 贸易转移排放 GTAP-MRIO模型 GTAP-E模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]