1980—2016年西太平洋暖池与ENSO循环过程的相关分析  

Correlation analysis of the cycle process between the western Pacific warm pool and ENSO during 1980—2016

作　　者：李晓惠[1] 徐峰[1] 陈虹颖[1] 夏天竹 涂石飞 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,广东湛江524088 [2]天津市滨海新区气象局,天津300457

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2017年第3期85-94,共10页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41475120);广东省近海海洋变化与灾害预警重点实验室项目

摘　　要：利用1980—2016年海表温度(SST)、海平面气压场(SLP)、南方涛动指数(SOI)、平均海洋尼诺指数(ONI)等资料对近37 a发生的ENSO(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation)事件进行统计分析,并用经验正交函数分析法以及小波分析方法研究西太平洋暖池与ENSO循环过程之间的作用机制。研究表明:近37 a来,Nino3.4区的SST在厄尔尼诺(El Ni1o)现象发生时存在较大的正距平,采用Nino3.4区SSTA的大幅度突变作为指标,能够更好地反映El Ni1o事件的发生;El Ni1o事件合成分析可知其形成过程中,西太平洋有一逐渐增强东移的暖中心;西太暖池东边界变化具有明显的年际变化特征,平均3~4 a经历一次循环,并出现变化周期延长的现象;海表温度的EOF能很好地预示ENSO的发生;通过小波分析可以看出暖池东边界对ENSO的发生有较好的预报意义。The data of SST,SLP,SOI and ONI were used to analyze the ENSO events in the past 37 years from 1980 to 2016. By using empirical orthogonal function analysis and wavelet analysis methods,the mechanism of cycle process between the western Pacific warm pool and ENSO were studied. The results show that there exists a large positive anomaly in the Nino3. 4 area SST during the El Ni1 o occurrence,and the large abrupt change of the SSTA in Nino3.4 area can be used as an index to better reflect the El Ni1 o event. El Ni1 o event analysis shows that in its formation process,the western Pacific has a gradually enhanced and eastward moving warming center. Also,the eastern boundary of the Warm Pool has an obvious interannual variability feature,with each cycle for 3 to 4 years on average,and a gradually prolonged period; The EOF of sea surface temperature is a good indicator to forebode the occurrence of ENSO; Through the wavelet analysis,it is found that the eastern boundary of warm pool has a good forecasting significance for ENSO occurrence.

关 键 词：暖池 ENSO循环 经验正交函数分析 小波分析 

分 类 号：P461.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]