国际大宗商品市场与国内物价水平的联动关系研究  

Research on the Linkage Between International Commodity Market and Domestic Price Level

作　　者：陆溢波 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《郑州航空工业管理学院学报》2017年第4期19-33,共15页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社科重大项目(SK2016SD04);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2016063)

摘　　要：国际大宗商品市场对国内物价水平的影响日益显著,深入探究其联动关系对政策当局理解背后的传导机制和互动机理,夯实抵御价格风险的能力和稳定物价具有重要的理论及实践价值。文章利用2006年6月至2016年12月的月度数据建立VAR模型,探讨了消费品、工业品、农业品三大类国际大宗商品通过完整的价格传导渠道对国内物价水平的传导效应。研究明确了影响的程度和范围,得到了具体的结构和路径特征,根据分析结论提出继续推动供给侧结构性改革、强化国际商品定价机制话语权、重视需求端在传导机制中的引导作用及保持动态的相机抉择等政策建议。In view of the increasing impact of the domestic price level on the international commodity market,it is of great theoretical and practical value for the policy authority to explore the relationship between their linkage to understand conduction mechanism and interaction mechanism, strengthen the ability to resist price risk and stabilize the price. In this paper, using monthly data from June 2006 to December 2016 to establish the VAR model, using the Grainger causality test, impulsing response function and variance decomposition method, discusses three categories of international commodity ’ s price channel effect on the price level in China through the complete transmission including consumer goods, industrial products and agricultural products. The study clarifies the extent and scope of the impact, obtains the specific structure and path characteristics. Finally according to the conclusions of the analysis, put forward some advice including continuing to promote the supply side structural re-form, strengthening the discourse of international commodity pricing mechanism, putting attention to the demand sideJ s right guide in the transmission mechanism and maintaining discretion dynamic pol-icy recommendations.

关 键 词：国际大宗商品 物价水平 传导机制 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]