巴布亚新几内亚M_W≥7地震时空对称性及趋势判断  

The Space-time Symmetry and the Trend Judgment of M_W≥7 Earthquake in Papua New Guinea

作　　者：石唯康 延军平[1] 董治宝[1,2] 杨军怀[1] 陈国祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所中国科学院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《河南科学》2017年第8期1309-1315,共7页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401310);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(GK201604011);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2016JQ4004);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2016M592742)

摘　　要：地震灾害的频繁发生给人类带来了大量的损失,对其进行准确的趋势判断,具有重大的理论和现实意义.利用自然可公度理论、蝴蝶结构图的对称性分析、地震可公度结构系、震中的时空迁移方向等预测判断该地区M_W≥7地震发生的时间和空间趋势.同时根据太阳黑子发生的周期频率、月球引潮力等分析此地区发生地震的机理.结果表明:1)巴布亚新几内亚2018年和2019年发生M_W≥7地震的信号最为强烈.2)从震中经向、纬向迁移的总体来看,下次地震震中向西南方向迁移的可能性较大,并且其范围可能在南纬5.1°以北,东经150.9°以西.3)巴布亚新几内亚下一次地震有极大可能发生在太阳黑子活动的第24周期下降段以及朔望日前后5 d之内.此研究旨在为今后的防灾减灾提供一些参考依据.The frequent occurrence of the earthquake disaster has brought a lot of losses to the human,and it is ofgreat theoretical and practical significance to judge the trend accurately. In this paper,the temporal and spatialtrends of M_W≥7 earthquake in Papua New Guinea are predicted by using the method of commensurability,symmetryanalysis of butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system of earthquake,the space-time migrationof epicenter and other aspects. At the same time,we analyzed mechanism of earthquake occurrence by the frequencyof sunspot,the lunar tidal force. The results show as follows. 1)The signal of M_W≥7 earthquake occurred in PapuaNew Guinea in March 2018 and 2019 was the strongest. 2)From the migration of warp direction and zonal ofepicenter,the migration of next earthquake epicenter have large possibility to the southwest,and its range may be inthe south latitude 5.1° north,east longitude 150.9° west. 3)The next earthquake in Papua New Guinea is most likelyto occur in the 24 th cycle decline period of sunspot and within 5 days of the moon. The purpose of this study is toprovide some reference for future disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：地震 时空对称 可公度 蝴蝶结构 巴布亚新几内亚 

分 类 号：P315.08[天文地球—地震学]