基于面到面泊松克里格方法的手足口病发病率空间分布降尺度研究  

Downscaling research of spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease basedon area-to-area Poisson Kriging method

作　　者：王佳欣[1,2] 胡茂桂[1] 于石成[3] 肖革新 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206 [4]国家食品安全风险评估中心,北京100022

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2017年第9期1201-1205,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（41301425,41531179）;北京市科技创新基地培育与发展工程专项（Z161100005016110）

摘　　要：目的 运用面到面泊松克里格降尺度方法，对山东省2010年区（县）手足口病发病率进行降尺度插值，探究手足口病在乡镇尺度上的空间分布模式，为卫生部门更精准的制定防控措施和分配医疗资源提供参考依据。方法 收集2010年山东省108个区（县）的手足口病发病数，采用面到面泊松克里格方法进行降尺度插值，运用地理信息系统（GIS）对插值结果进行空间可视化，将区（县）发病率降尺度插值到乡镇发病率，得到乡镇发病率空间分布。结果 降尺度插值时，拟合的点尺度半方差方程的自相关距离（变程）为20.38 km，变程范围内发病率具有空间自相关性。区（县）手足口病发病率估计值和实际值散点图拟合函数为y=1.053 1x，R2=0.99，不同尺度之间发病率保持一致。结论 手足口病发病率在20.38 km范围内具有一定的空间自相关性。在某一地区暴发手足口病时，有关部门可重点针对暴发区20.38 km范围内的地区进行重点监控，着重分配治疗药物等医疗资源。面到面泊松克里格降尺度方法能够被有效地应用于手足口病的空间制图中，为公共健康发病率高分辨率制图提供了一种新的方法。Objective To understand the spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease （HFMD） at scale of township and provide evidence for the better prevention and control of HFMD and allocation of medical resources. Methods The incidence data of HFMD in 108 counties （district） in Shandong province in 2010 were collected. Downscaling interpolation was conducted by using area-to-area Poisson Kriging method. The interpolation results were visualized by using geographic information system （GIS）. The county （district） incidence was interpolated into township incidence to get the distribution of spatial distribution of incidence of township. Results In the downscaling interpolation, the range of the fitting semi-variance equation was 20.38 km. Within the range, the incidence had correlation with each other. The fitting function of scatter diagram of estimated and actual incidence of HFMD at country level was y=1.053 1x, R2=0.99. The incidences at different scale were consistent. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD had spatial autocorrelation within 20.38 km. When HFMD occurs in one place, it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and allocation of medical resource in the surrounding area within 20.38 km. Area to area Poisson Kriging method based downscaling research can be used in spatial visualization of HFMD incidence.

关 键 词：面到面泊松克里格 手足口病 空间分布 降尺度 变差函数 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]