比较优势动态递减概率模型及检验  

Model and Examination of Comparative Advantage Dynamic Diminishing Probability

作　　者：袁辉[1] 许晓军[1] 宁凯[1] 刘贺[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学商贸学院,辽宁辽阳111003

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第17期11-15,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L15AJL008);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究立项课题(W2013024)

摘　　要：在比较优势的持续时间是随机变量的条件下,文章运用不确定性数学方法和规范方法,推出了比较优势递减定理,认为比较优势会随着时间增加而递减,具有发散效应,即比较优势不会被锁定。推出的比较优势"无记忆性"定理表明,各国遵循比较优势发展国际贸易是正确的,国际贸易会让各个国家自动寻找到适合本国的比较优势。通过定义比较优势逆转概率,运用实证方法进行研究,研究表明比较优势基本符合比较优势递减定理和"无记忆性"定理内容,认为中国传统劳动密集型优势在逐渐减小,产业结构调整非常成功,逐渐拥有资本密集型优势和技术密集型优势,产业结构越来越合理。Under the condition that the comparative advantage duration is a random variable, this paper uses uncertainty mathematical methods and normative methods to deduce the diminishing theorem of comparative advantage, and holds that com- parative advantage will decrease progressively with time increasing, and has divergent effect, which means comparative advantage will not be locked. The deduced comparative advantage ＂lack-of-memory property＂ theorem shows that it is right for countries to obey the comparative advantages and develop international trade, and that international trade leads each individual country to au- tomatically finding the comparative advantage suitable for their own country. The paper defines the reverse probability for compar- ative advantage, and employs empirical study method to conduct research. The research results show that the comparative advan- tage basically accords to the content of comparative advantage diminishing theorem and ＂lack-of-memory property＂ theorem. The paper holds that China＇ s traditional labor intensive advantage is gradually diminishing; the industrial structure adjustment is very successful; China gradually obtains capital intensive advantage and technology intensive advantage, and her industrial structure becomes more and more reasonable.

关 键 词：比较优势 概率模型 国际贸易 资本密集型 劳动密集型 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]