冲击对中国西部贫困地区农户食物安全的影响研究  

Impact of Shocks on Householders' Food Security in Rural Areas of West China

作　　者：孙梦瑶[1] 聂凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2017年第4期480-489,共10页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173222)

摘　　要：以2012年、2015年陕西、云南、贵州3省6县实地调研数据为基础,运用两阶段最小二乘法、多元Logit回归等分析方法,分析冲击对农户食物安全的静态和动态影响,试图回答哪些冲击对农户食物安全有影响,有怎样的影响,对哪些农户影响较大。研究结果表明:样本农户遭受的冲击对其食物安全有显著负向影响,其中暴雨洪涝灾害对食物安全影响最显著。冲击对贫困程度较高的农户影响较大,它会提高农户脱离食物不安全状况的难度,增加食物安全户陷入食物不安全的风险。据此,提出完善灾害冲击应急保障机制、加强农业保险实施强度、提高社会保障能力、提升农户冲击应对能力等建议。Based on field survey data collected in 6 counties fromprovinces including Shaanxi,Yunnan,and Guizhou collectedin 2012 and 2015,the impact of shocks on farmers' food security was analyzed through the 2SLS method and multivariate logit regression analysis method with the help ofstatic and dynamic methods in order to explore what shockaffects households' food security,what the effect is,and who are prone to the effect.The results show that the sample farmers mainly suffered from the impact of nature shocks,followed by social shocks,both of which have an impact on theirproduction and living,particularly on their food securitywhich is most significantly affected by floods,especially for poor farmers. Shockswill make it more difficult for the poor households to getout of poverty and enhance the risk of falling into poverty for the food secure households.Accordingly it is suggested that the disaster emergency safeguard mechanism should be perfected,the agricultural insurance implementation be strengthened,social securitycapability be improved,and farmers be trained to improve their skills to cope with the shocks.

关 键 词：冲击 食物安全 两阶段最小二乘法 多元Logit 

分 类 号：F325.2[经济管理—产业经济]