严重灾害下特高压交直流电网风险评估方法  

Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System in Serious Disasters

作　　者：龙日尚 张建华 蒙园 谭涛 胡浩 刘阳 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2017年第9期2939-2946,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51277067);电网技术国际标准研制(201510207-3)~~

摘　　要：为研究特高压交直流电网承受自然灾害的能力,基于风险评估理论,研究了适用于严重灾害下特高压交直流混合电网的安全性分析方法。首先,考虑连锁故障的全过程,提出一种基于PSD电力系统分析软件仿真的快速故障概率计算方法,计算系统在某初始故障集下的连锁故障概率;并考虑故障恢复阶段的损失,建立全过程风险评估模型;其次,从电网架构、故障状态、经济损失3个方面提出了综合指标评价体系,对系统风险进行了量化评估。最后对某地区特高压电网2种规划方案进行了风险评估,通过比较其连锁故障发展过程,并根据事故阶段和恢复阶段的风险指标计算结果,得出了优选网架规划方案,验证了研究工作的有效性。In order to study capacity of UHV AC/DC power system to withstand natural disasters,based on theory of risk assessment, safety analysis method for UHV AC/DC power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed and chain failure probability of the system under an initial fault set is calculated. Then a whole process risk assessment model is established considering loss in fault recovery stage based on PSD power system analysis software. Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation index system is put forward from aspects of power grid structure, fault state and economic loss, and quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out. Finally, risk assessment of two UHV power system planning schemes is performed, and optimal grid plan is obtained by comparing developing process of cascading faults and calculating results of the risk index during accident and recovery phases. It proves effectiveness of the research work.

关 键 词：特高压 连锁故障 风险评估 指标体系 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]