公共危机处理中地方政府预测预警机制建设探究——以河北邢台大贤村7.19洪灾为例  

Research on the Construction of Local Government's Forecasting and Early Warning Mechanism in the Process of Public Crisis——A Case Study of July 19th Flood in Daxian Village,Xingtai City,Hebei Province

作　　者：檀阳 TAN Yang(School of Management, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100089, China)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学管理学院,北京100089

出　　处：《安徽行政学院学报》2017年第4期48-52,共5页Journal of Anhui Academy of Governance

摘　　要：在公共危机管理过程中,防胜于治,如果在灾情发生前对危机发展趋势做出预估并据此做应对准备,就可能将受损程度降到最低,目前,我国地方政府预测预警机制中,各个环节衔接不连贯、部门分工不明确,导致责任分配模糊、预警效率低下。地方政府预测预警机制的完善,应建立在细化工作内容、明确职责权限的基础上,加强风险评估和预警工作建设,同时坚持以人为本的理念,灵活应对突发状况,以最大程度减少公共危机造成的损失。In the process of public crisis management, it is possible to reduce the degree of damage to the minimum, and it is nec- essary to forecast the trend of the crisis before the disaster situation. In China, the present forecasting and early warning mecha- nism has some problems, links are not coherent, departmental division of labor is not clear, which leads to fuzzy distribution of re- sponsibilities and low efficiency of early warning. The improvement of the local government＇s forecasting and early warning mecha- nism should be based on the refinement of the work contents and clearing obligation authorities, strengthening the risk assessment and early warning work, adhering to the concept of people-oriented simultaneously, responding to the situation flexibly, for the sake of minimizing the public crisis loss.

关 键 词：公共危机 地方政府 预测预警 机制 

分 类 号：D630.8[政治法律—政治学]