基于韧性的灾后区域经济增长模式研究--以汶川地震为例  

The Post-Earthquake Regional Economic Growth Pattern Based on Resilience:A Case Study of Wenchuan Earthquake

作　　者：万膑莲 翟国方[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]四川省城乡规划设计研究院 [2]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 [3]南京大学城市规划与设计系

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2017年第9期41-47,共7页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于多智能体系统的城市洪水风险的可接受度研究”(项目编号:41071325)

摘　　要：韧性提升是区域可持续发展的重要内容,在灾害频发使得区域经济发展面临巨大压力的背景下,提高经济韧性已成为降低冲击风险的重大措施之一。我国对韧性的关注起步较晚,经济韧性的研究还处于定性引入阶段。随着学术界对韧性重视程度的提升,对地区经济韧性分析和评价的实证就显得尤为重要。因此,本文以汶川地震为例,以GDP作为衡量标准,从宏观经济层面对区域经济韧性展开定量分析,扩展了已有4种经济增长模式,探究得出研究区在经历地震冲击后的8种经济增长模式,同时以经济韧性指数作为衡量指标,分析比较不同区域的经济韧性差异及其产生原因,希望为提高区域经济韧性、减少冲击风险、促进区域经济稳定发展提供参考。Frequent disasters have made economic development Faced with huge pressures, thus improving the economic resilience has become one of the important part of regional sustainable development and the key measure of reducing shock risk. However, in China the research on resilience started quite late and the study of economic resilience is only on the early stage of qualitative introduction. Recently, as the academia has paid more and more attention on resilience, the empirical study of this field becomes rather important. Therefore, this paper uses Wenchuan earthquake as a case study, and analyzes economic resilience measured by GDP from the macroeconomic level. It makes a conclusion of 8 kinds of economic growth patterns of the study area after the earthquake shock based on the previous 4 patterns, and then uses the economic resilience index as the measurement to analyze and compare the economic resilience difference among regions. Based upon this, the paper explored the reasons of the variance, hoping to improve the resilience, reduce the impact of the risk and promote the stable development of regional economy.

关 键 词：经济韧性 增长模式 汶川地震 地区生产总值 韧性指数 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] P315.9[天文地球—地震学]