川滇地区Ms≥7.0地震时间对称特征及其周期解释  

Time Symmetric Characteristics of Ms≥ 7.0Earthquakes in the Sichuan—Yunnan Region and Cycle Interpretation

作　　者：李向农[1] 延军平[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2017年第4期698-705,共8页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(14AZD094);国家自然科学基金项目(41371497)

摘　　要：通过地震时间对称特征进行地震趋势判断的研究,对于地震防灾、减灾有重要意义。为验证地震时间对称性研究方法,揭示地震时间对称特征的机理,采用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系方法研究川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征及趋势;然后利用小波分析所提取的川滇地区MS≥5.0地震能量释放周期和日月活动周期,对川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征进行解释。研究结果显示:(1)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震具有明显时间对称特征,2017年发震信号最强,其随机概率为65.5%。(2)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是地震能量释放周期更直观的表达。(3)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是月球赤纬角周期和太阳黑子周期组合叠加的结果,月球赤纬角极值是强震的主要触发因素。The ability to predict the time-trend of earthquakes through seismic time symmetric characteristics is a significant step in earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.To verify the research approach of seismic time symmetry and reveal the mechanisms involved in seismic time symmetry characteristics,time symmetry characteristics and trends of MS≥7.0earthquakes are analyzed and assessed by applying different methods such as commensurability calculations,the butterfly structure diagram,and the commensurability structure system.The seismic time symmetric characteristics are then explained in relation to types of cycles,such as the seismic energy releasing cycle,lunar right declination,and the sunspot cycle.Results show that：（1）the earthquake（MS≥7.0）sequence in the study area has evident time symmetry characteristics,and there are strong earthquake signals in 2017 with a random probability of occurrence of 65.5%;（2）the time symmetry characteristics of MS≥7.0earthquakes provide a good intuitive expression of seismic energy releasing cycle;（3）the time symmetry characteristics of MS≥7.0earthquakes results from the varying effects of superposition of lunar right declination and sunspot cycles,and the extremum of lunar right declination is the main trigger for strong earthquakes（MS≥7.0）.

关 键 词：地震 周期 时间对称 川滇地区 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]