现代地震预警系统中的时间延迟效应分析  

Analysis of the Time Delay Effect in Modern Earthquake Early Warning Systems

作　　者：李拴虎[1] 陈立峰[1] 姚远[2] 韩晓明[1] 杨红樱[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区地震局,内蒙古呼和浩特010010 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2017年第4期790-796,共7页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：2016年内蒙古自治区科技厅重大专项(强震短临跟踪和空地立体观测技术集成创新);中国地震局监测;预测;科研三结合课题(160506)

摘　　要：地震预警系统(EEW)中时间延迟制约着地震预警的时效性,缩短地震预警延迟时间能显著提高地震预报效能和应急反应能力。通过分析地震预警系统的延迟因素,分解从地震发生到预警信息发布过程的各个环节,计算出每个环节的时间延迟值,并对原地、异地和混合地震预警模式的地震预警水平、预警盲区半径进行对比,分析三种地震预警模式的时间延迟效应。结果显示,预警系统的时间延迟主要包含数据传输和数据处理两方面,实验室理论最少延迟时间为Δt=3.9s;主流预警系统平均延迟时间为Δt=14.3s;最先进的预警系统延迟只有Δt=8.7s。时间延迟同样影响着浅源地震(0~60km)的预警盲区半径,二者呈正相关性,当Δt=8.7s时,盲区半径最高达52.2km;当Δt=3.9s时,盲区半径最大只有23.4km。分析认为,有效缩短地震预警系统中的延迟时间,不仅能提高地震预警的时效性,同时能降低预警的盲区范围,对整个监测预报、预警和防灾减灾事业也有积极的推动作用。The problem of time delay in earthquake early warning（EEW）systems restricts their effectiveness.Shortening the delay time can significantly improve the efficiency and emergency response ability of EEWs.In this study,we analyze the delay factors,decompose the period from earthquake occurrence to the warning information release to many links,then calculate the specific delay time in each link.We then compare the warning level and radius of warning blind area in autochthonous,allochthonous,and mixed EEW models,and analyze each model＇s delaying effect.The results show that the time delay in EEWs mainly comprises delay in data transition and processing;with a minimum theoretical delay time ofΔt=3.9s,an average delay time ofΔt=14.3s in the mainstream EEW,andΔt=8.7sin the most advanced EEW.Moreover,the time delay exerts influence on the radius of the blind area in a shallow earthquake and a positive relationship can be witnessed.For example,whenΔt=8.7s,the blind area radius is 52.2km and whenΔt=3.9s,the largest blind area radius is only 23.4km.The results indicate that effective shortening of delay time can not only improve the timeliness of earthquake early warnings,but also reduce the blind area.

关 键 词：预警系统 时间延迟 时效性 预警盲区 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]