资本账户开放能促进经济长期增长吗?——基于新古典增长理论的研究  

Would Capital Account Liberalization Promote Economic Growth in the Long Term?——Research Based on the Neoclassical Growth Theory

作　　者：陈镜宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津外国语大学国际商学院,天津300204

出　　处：《经济经纬》2017年第5期62-67,共6页Economic Survey

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目(TJYY16-008Q)

摘　　要：通过利率差异因素将资本账户开放度引入开放条件下新古典增长模型,发现影响经济增长率的因素并非是饱受争论的资本账户开放度,而是资本账户开放度变动幅度。通过1980—2013年181个国家和地区的面板数据对理论假说进行检验,并采用有限信息最大似然法(LIML)克服内生性及弱工具变量问题,进一步发现:资本账户开放度增幅正向显著解释了经济增长率,并且新兴市场国家经济增长幅度更大;另外,人口政策与财政政策在经合组织国家与新兴市场国家对经济增长的影响作用相反。因此,我国当前不应将经济增长动力寄托于资本账户开放的短期效果,应该通过结构性改革提高资本市场投资效率;适度放宽生育政策,避免劳动力成本过低的比较优势降低国际分工地位;并提高公共物品供给,打造便利化的贸易、投资平台。By introducing the degree of capital account liberalization into the neoclassical growth model and using the factor of interest rate difference,this paper finds that what impacts the economic growth is not the degree of capital account liberalization itself,which has received a lot of controversies,but the extent of change in it. By analyzing panel data of 181 countries and regions from 1980 to2013 while adopting methods of limited information maximum likelihood（ LIML） to solve the problems of endogeneity and weak instrumental variables,this paper tests the theoretical hypothesis and further discovers that the extent of rise in degree of capital account liberalization significantly explains the rate of economic growth and those emerging market countries enjoy greater economic growth. In addition,the effect of population policy and fiscal policy on economic growth in OECD countries and emerging market countries are opposite. Therefore,China should not depend on the short-term effect of capital account liberalization,but instead,improve investment efficiency through structural reform in capital market. Meanwhile,moderately loosening the family planning policy will help avoid lowering the status in international division of labor caused by comparative advantage of excessively low cost of labor,and build a convenient platform of trade and investment by offering more public supplies.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 新古典经济增长模型 投资效率 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]