自贸协定对“21世纪海上丝绸之路”出口贸易的影响  

The Effect of Free Trade Agreements on Export Trade Along The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

作　　者：刘镇[1] 邱志萍[1] 刘伟明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学江西经济发展与改革研究院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《经济经纬》2017年第5期68-74,共7页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC021);江西高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(ZK12);江西省高校人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(JC1409);江西省教育厅科技规划项目(GJJ150467)

摘　　要：选取沿线15个样本国家,基于A-v W引力模型,借鉴Baier等(2009)的一阶对数线性泰勒近似方法估计多边阻力,实证研究自贸协定对"21世纪海上丝绸之路"出口贸易的实际影响,并测度出口的多边贸易阻力大小。研究表明:忽略多边阻力的传统引力模型明显低估了自贸协定在出口贸易中的促进作用;自贸协定对出口贸易具有显著稳健的促进作用,在初级产品出口方面尤为明显;中国向非洲和欧洲沿线国家出口的多边贸易阻力远大于亚洲沿线国家。因此,中国应充分利用FTA对出口贸易的促进作用,加快与沿线国家商签FTA进程,积极推动已有FTA的战略升级,增进与沿线国家在语言与文化上的沟通交流,对不同多边贸易阻力的国家或区域进行更有针对性的对策研究。Based on the gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop,this paper selects sample data from 15 countries along the route,applies the first-order logarithmic linear Taylor series expansion method proposed by Baier and Bergstrand（ 2009） and estimates multilateral resistance. Then it continues with an empirical study of the real impact of free trade agreements on export trade along the 21 stCentury Maritime Silk Road and calculates the multilateral trade resistance that it faces. The results show that： first,the traditional gravity model that neglects multilateral resistance obviously underestimates the positive impact of FTA on export trade; second,when multilateral resistance is taken into account,FTA shows significant and steady impacts on promoting export trade,especially so in primary commodity exports; third,the multilateral trade resistance China suffers in its exports to European and African countries is much greater than that to Asian countries. Therefore,China should make good use of the positive impact that FTA has on export trade,accelerate the process of signing FTA with countries along the route,actively upgrade the strategy of the existing FTA,increase language and cultural communication with countries on the route and carry out more research with greater pertinence on countries and regions of different levels of multilateral trade resistance.

关 键 词：自贸协定 “21世纪海上丝绸之路” 多边阻力 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]