基于CA-Markov的农林交错区土地利用变化分析及预测  

Dynamic changes and prediction of land use in farm-forest ecotone based on CA-Markov model

作　　者：高凤杰[1] 韩文文[1] 单培明 鞠铁男 吴啸[1] 张炳芳[1] 黄善林[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2017年第9期145-153,共9页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(12541037);东北农业大学青年才俊项目(14QC30)

摘　　要：基于2000和2007年TM影像和2015年OLI影像,借助于地学信息图谱理论,分析东北山地丘陵地带农林交错区实施退耕还林15年间的土地利用变化,在此基础上利用CA-Markov模型对2023年研究区的土地利用类型进行预测和模拟。结果表明:1)不同研究时期内,研究区林地面积比例均过65%,耕地面积均占总面积20%以上;2)稳定型图谱所占比例最大,散布于整个研究区,其中"林地-林地-林地"是其最大演变类型,"旱地-旱地-旱地"次之;"旱地-林地-林地"是前期变化型的最大变化类型,"草地-草地-林地"是后期变化型的主要变化模式,"林地-旱地-林地"是反复变化型面积最大的变化模式,持续变化型所占面积最小;3)运用CA-Markov预测的2015年土地利用类型,其精度为0.94,模型可用,由此模拟了2023年土地利用数量和空间分布,结果显示土地利用结构仍以林地为主,林地-旱地是其最主要的转移轨迹。平衡生态环境保护、建设用地需求与耕地保护三者之间的矛盾是研究区土地利用的焦点。By taking Landsat TM images in 2000a and 2007a and Landsat OLI images in 2015a as main analyzing data,the LUCC under the ＂Grain for Green Project＂ of a farm-forest ecotone located in a mountain foothill area in Northeast China,including changes in number by Land-Use Transfer Matrix and changes in space by Geo-information Tupu,was discussed.The land use pattern in 2023a was forecasted by CA-Markov model.The results showed that：1） The proportion of forest in the study area was all over 65%,and the cultivated land accounted for more than 20% of the total area;2） The proportion of stable change atlas was the largest and scattered throughout the whole study area,among which the forestland→forestland→forestland pattern was the first evolution type followed by the dry land→dry land→dry land type;dry land→forest→forest was the main type of early change atlas,grass→grass→forest was the main type of late change atlas,and forest→dry land→forest was the main type of repeated change atlas;continuous change atlas was the smallest change type in the area.3） By comparing the forecasting land-use map by CA-Markov with the present land-use map by remote sensing interpretation in 2015a,the Kappa coefficient was 0.94,indicating that the CA-Markov model was applicable in the study area.So the CA-Markov model was applied to forecast the land-use in 2023,showing that forest was still the main land-use type and forest→dry land was the change trace.In conclusion,balance between the ecological environment protection,construction land supply and cultivated land conservation was the focus of land use study.

关 键 词：CA—Markov模型 农林交错区 地学信息图谱 土地利用转移矩阵 预测 

分 类 号：U412.14[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]