小型城市污水排放量预测模型研究——以楚雄市为例  

Forecasting Model Analysis of Urban Sewage Discharge in Small Cities—— A Case Study of Chuxiong City

作　　者：施露[1] 董增川[1] 许波刘 杨淑[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2017年第4期47-50,54,共5页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：考虑生态需水的汾河水库;汾河二库水资源优化调度研究项目(20165011212)基金资助

摘　　要：针对小城市污水排放量历史数据较少,城市发展变化较大的特点,以楚雄市为例,提出了基于污水排放来源以及生成机理的预测方法。根据历史人口增长趋势以及城镇化率进行城区人口综合预测,运用定额法根据不同行业用水特点预测城市用水量,结合城市污水排放特点对楚雄市近期以及远期城市污水排放量进行科学合理的预测,并对预测结果进行了分析,可为城市发展规划提供决策参考。With regard to the features of lacking historical data of sewage discharge in small cities and facing great urban development, Chuxiong City was taken as an example and a forecasting model based on effluent source and formation mechanism was established. Urban population was forecasted according to the historical population growth trend and urbanization rate. Quota method was used to forecast the urban water consumption according to the water consumption features of different industries. In combination with the features of urban water consumption, short and long term urban sewage discharge in Chuxiong City was predicted in a scientific and reasonable way and the research results were analyzed, providing technical support for decision making of urban development planning.

关 键 词：城市污水排放量 预测模型 人口预测 用水量 定额法 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]