川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断  

Space-time symmetry and trend of M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in Chuandian area

作　　者：李向农 延军平 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安710062

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2017年第4期1447-1453,共7页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"西部重大灾害时空规律的统计研究(14AZD094)";国家自然科学基金项目"基于有限理性模式的秦岭暴雨灾害游客风险感知评价研究(41371497)"联合资助

摘　　要：地震时空趋势判断对于防灾、减灾有重要意义.选取1900年以来川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震序列数据,采用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系方法研究川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震时间对称特征及趋势;分析地震震中经纬度迁移,结合川滇地区地质构造和地震危险性判断准则研究川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震空间对称特征及趋势.研究结果显示:(1)川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震具有明显时间对称特征,2017年发震信号最强.(2)川滇地区M_S≥7.0地震具有明显空间对称特征,存在主、次对称轴带和对称中心,未来鲜水河—小江断裂带中段安宁河断裂带发震水平最高.Predicting the time-space trend of earthquakes is the significant step for earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the seismic data（M_S≥7.0） since 1900 in Chuandian area,The space-time symmetry and trend of M_S≥7.0 earthquakes were analyzed and judged by using the different methods：including commensurability information,commensurability value extraction,butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system,longitudinal and latitudinal migration,space symmetry structure and judgement rules of seismic hazard.The results show：（1） There is a strongest earthquake signal in 2017,and it is possible there is a greater magnitude earthquake（M_S≥7.0）.（2） The earthquakes sequence has obvious spatial symmetry structure,existing one main symmetry axis zone,one vice main symmetry axis zone and one symmetry center.The next earthquake may occur in An-ning river fault zone.

关 键 词：地震 时空对称 趋势 川滇地区 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]