中国投资东盟农业的风险评价及国别优先序  

The Risk Evaluation and Country Priority Sequence of China's Investment in ASEAN Agricultural

作　　者：谭砚文[1] 曾华盛[1] 李丛希 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2017年第8期76-85,共10页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：农业农村资源等监测统计经费项目;广东省高层次人才项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着中国—东盟自贸区升级版谈判的结束和落实,中国对东盟农业投资的规模将持续增加,企业所面临的投资风险也随之加剧。本文在分析中国投资东盟农业各种风险的基础上,运用模糊综合评判法对中国投资东盟农业的风险进行综合评价,并运用灰色关联法对东盟FDI流入量与东盟国家农业投资风险的相关性进行了研究,进而给出了中国投资东盟农业的国别优先序。研究表明,东盟主要国家的农业投资风险普遍较高,相对地,老挝、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等国的农业投资风险较低。With the end of the negotiations about the upgraded version of China-ASEAN free trade area,the scale of China's investment in ASEAN agricultural will continue to grow,but the enterprise will face more risks of overseas investment than before.On the base of analyzing the various risks of China's investment in ASEAN agricultural,this paper evaluates the investment risk in ASEAN by means of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,studies the correlation between the agricultural investment risk in ASEAN countries and FDI inflow volume of ASEAN,and gives the country priority sequence of China's investment in ASEAN agricultural.It indicates that the risk of agricultural investment in ASEAN countries is generally high;but it is relatively low in Laos,Malaysia and Indonesia.

关 键 词：中国投资东盟 农业投资风险 模糊综合评价 国别优先序 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F323