中国的投资数据有多准确?  

How Accurate is China's Investment Statistics?

作　　者：朱天[1] 张军[2] 刘芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中欧国际工商学院经济学与决策科学系 [2]复旦大学中国经济研究中心

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2017年第2期1199-1218,共20页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：中欧国际工商学院的慷慨资助;教育部创新团队发展计划;国家自然科学重点项目(71333002)为本研究提供的慷慨资助

摘　　要：本文试图在朱天和张军(2014)对中国家庭消费支出被官方数据低估的研究基础上进一步考察中国的投资数据质量。我们发现,中国支出法GDP中的资本形成总额虽然名义上是独立核算出来的,但最终公布的数字却与严格按官方核算方法计算出来的结果大相径庭,基本上可以看成是按生产-收入法核算出来的GDP总额减去最终消费和净出口总额后的余项。在这种情况下,由于居民消费支出被低估,资本形成(即投资支出)也就被等量地高估了。This paper investigates the quality of China＇s investment data. We follow strictly the official method to estimate the annual gross capital formation expenditure from 2004 to 2012, and find that the resulting figures are significantly different from the official statistics. We conclude that the official capital formation figure is practically a residual item derived from subtracting the amount of estimated final consumption and net exports from the official GDP （based on the production cum income method）. As a result, the underestimation of of China＇s consumption expenditure has automatically been translated into the overestimation its investment expenditure.

关 键 词：支出法GDP构成 固定资产投资 最终消费 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]