基于符号回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析  

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Symbolic Regression

作　　者：高磊 张冬青[1] 叶方如 黄宇 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,江苏南京210031 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《大豆科学》2017年第5期782-788,共7页Soybean Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71301077);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金(SK2014011)

摘　　要：大豆作为我国重要的粮食作物与油料来源,其价格对居民生活以及农业经济具有重要影响。大豆价格影响因素分析对调控大豆价格、稳定大豆市场有重大意义。在定性分析基础上,采用符号回归法对大豆价格的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:货币供应量与进口大豆到港分销价格对大豆价格影响最大,其次为世界大豆产量与国内需求量,之后是国内大豆自给量与大豆进口量,居民消费价格指数与消费者信心指数影响最小。最后,根据分析结果对国内大豆市场调控提出指导意见。As the important food crops and oil source in our country, the price of soybeans has important effects on residents＇ life and agricultural economy. Analysis on influencing factors of domestic soybean price has great significance to control soy- bean price and stabilize the soybean market. On the basis of qualitative analysis, the influence factors of soybean price were analyzed by symbol regression method. The results show that the money supply and soybean export price have the greatest im- pact on soybean price, followed by the world＇s soybean production and domestic demand, which followed by domestic soybean self-sufficiency and soybean imports, the consumer price index and the consumer confidence index have the least impact. Fi- nally, provide some suggestions to the domestic soybean market regulation according to the analysis results.

关 键 词：大豆价格 符号回归 影响因素 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F224.7