可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析  

SEA ICE AND WEATHER FORECASTING INFORMATION FOR ARCTIC SEA ROUTES: A SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS

作　　者：姜珊[1] 杨清华[1] 梁颖祺[1] 滕骏华[1] 张林[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《极地研究》2017年第3期399-413,共15页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC1402705;2016YFC1402707);中国极地科学战略研究青年基金(20140402)资助

摘　　要：全球气候变暖和北极海冰快速减少背景下,北极航道正在开通,提高海冰和气象预报能力是北极地区船只航行的重要保障。通过获取不同国家的北极高纬共享信息(包括观测数据、预报产品和历史分析资料),分析国际北极地区海冰和气象预报信息特点及存在的问题,能够为我国北极观测预报的常态化、业务化发展提供参考。通过对7个环北极国家、3个非北极国家以及3个信息发布平台共23家机构海冰和气象预报信息的对比,发现近年来各国北极预报水平提升,合作交流扩大,但是仍存在一些问题,如观测数据没有充分应用于预报、北极中央区的预报能力偏弱、预报信息共享度不够、信息应用时需要加以选择、仍需提升信息发布技术。通过上述分析,建议我国持续增加北极科考、国际合作、冰区安全航行预报保障技术研究等的投入,以系统提升我国的极地预报能力,为我国北极科考和极地航运事业提供更加及时有效的预报保障。The reduction in the extent of summer sea ice, associated with global climate change, offers the possibility of new sea routes through the Arctic Ocean. Improving the skill of forecasting sea ice and weather would strongly support Arctic navigation. Collecting international online information（including observational data, forecast products, and historical analysis） of the high Arctic, and analyzing the characteristics of sea ice extent and weather forecast information, could support the development of operational Arctic forecasting by China. By comparing the information supplied by seven Arctic countries, three non-Arctic countries, and three international information suppliers, it was found that sea ice and meteorological forecasting capabilities have improved considerably, although further improvements could be made. For example, observational data have not been applied fully, the prediction ability in the Central Arctic remains weak, sharing of forecast information is insufficient, and comparison is needed when using online information. Furthermore, the development of new information technologies is urgently required. To provide improved and reliable protection in relation to sea ice and weather for Chinese Arctic expeditions and shipping activities, it is strongly suggested that investment in Arctic scientific expeditions be increased, and that international cooperation be sought for the development of forecasting technologies in relation to areas affected by Arctic sea ice.

关 键 词：海冰预报 气象预报 观测 数据 北极 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P731.15[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] U675.12[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]