基于多主体仿真的经济新常态下规则与相机性利率政策选择  

The choice between rule-based and discretion monetary policy under new normality based on multi-agent simulation

作　　者：霍琳 尚维[2] 徐山鹰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京语言大学信息科学学院,北京100083 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年第9期2289-2296,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：北京语言大学校级科研项目(中央高校基本科研业务专项资金)(15YBB26);国家自然科学基金(71171186;71571180;71571021)~~

摘　　要：本文设计了基于生产函数和神经网络的多主体仿真经济系统,建立了利率政策仿真模型,对比分析了规则性与相机性利率政策对宏观经济的影响.模型设计了企业的存贷款规则及中央银行的利率规则,通过模拟相机性与规则性利率政策下宏观经济的不同特性,对比分析了两种政策的适用场景.发现规则性的利率政策有助于使经济平稳,而相机性的利率政策虽然可能提升经济状况,也会带来较大风险。最后结合我国现阶段新常态的宏观经济形式,对利率政策的实施提出了建议。A model of interest policy is built based on a multi-agent economic system with production function and neural networks, in order to analyse the influences of rule-based and discretionary interest policy to macroeconomy. A bank is responsible of transferring the money from the creditor to the debtor with interest rules. The deposit and loan rules are designed, to analyze the suitable scenario of each interest policy. The results show the per capita output varies explicitly under different monetary policies. The rule-based interest policy helps keeping a stable economy, while discretionary interest policy improves economic situation, but alpso takes a risk. Considering the new normal economic state China is currently experiencing, a stable and sustainable economy is government apply rule-based monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 相机抉择 多主体仿真 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]