基于不确定性度量的作战能力对比评估方法  

Contrast evaluation method for operational capability based on the measurement of uncertainty

作　　者：王亮[1,2] 周赤非[1] 尚国华[2] 

机构地区：[1]军事科学院联合作战研究实验中心,北京100091 [2]国防科技大学指挥军官基础教育学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年第9期2474-2480,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：为使评估结果能够反映出评估对象作战能力之间的差距,提出基于不确定性度量的作战能力对比评估方法.首先建立了作战能力测度概念模型,采用相对于参照对象完成任务时减少的不确定性程度来度量评估对象的作战能力;然后探讨了把作战能力指标转换为具有可能性含义指标的预处理方法;在此基础上,借鉴信息论中对不确定性的处理方法,构建了能力度数学模型,详细讨论了其特征和军事含义,并提出了绝对能力度和平均能力度扩展模型;最后通过一个案例对方法的可行性和有效性进行验证和分析。结果表明:应用该方法进行作战能力评估,不仅能够得到传统评估方法所得到的排序结果,而且能够反映出作战能力评估值之间数量上的差距。In order to make the evaluation results, not only be used in the operational capability sequence arrangement, but also indicate the gap among the evaluation objects, contrast evaluation method for operational capability was presented which was based on the measurement of uncertainty. Firstly, the conceptual model of the operational capability evaluation was built. The operational capability evaluation was transformed to the measurement of uncertainty, which the evaluation object fulfill the task comparing the reference object. Secondly, the pretreatment method of operational capability indices was proposed, which transferred the indices to the standard data that had the meaning of possibility. On this basis, referred to the treatment of uncertainty in information theory, capability degree model was built, which was used to measure operational capability gap between the evaluation object and the reference object by simple index, then its character and military meaning were discussed, and absolute capability degree and average capability degree were put forward. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method was tested by a case that evaluated the operational capability of eight mechanization infantry divisions. The resnlt shows that, by applying this method, despite the common evaluation results, the gap of operational capability among objects can be reflected.

关 键 词：作战能力 不确定性 对比评估 能力度 

分 类 号：E917[军事]