基于VEC模型的中韩农产品贸易与经济增长关系的研究  

Research of Sino-Korea agricultural products trade and economic growth based on VEC model

作　　者：孙梅红[1] 韩星焕[1] 李锐[1] 杨妤晨 

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,长春市130118 [2]长春理工大学经济管理学院,长春市130022

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2017年第8期125-129,共5页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：吉林省教育厅"十二五"社会科学研究项目(2015第116号)

摘　　要：选取1992~2015年中韩农产品贸易的相关数据,建立VEC模型,运用协整检验等相关方法,对中韩农产品贸易与经济增长之间的动态关系进行实证研究。结果表明,中国每向韩国农产品出口增长1%,则中国经济增长将提升1.798 744%;误差修正机制使得LnGDP若出现偏离长期均衡,将在其他因素的共同影响下会逐步回归到长期均衡状态;中国对韩国农产品出口是GDP的单向格兰杰原因,并提出了促进中韩农产品贸易发展相关的建议。With the data of Sino-Korea agricultural products trade from 1992 to 2015,VEC model was built.Thus,relevant methods such as co-integration test were used,for doing empirical research on the dynamic relationship between Sino-Korea agricultural products trade and economic growth.When China＇s agricultural exports to South Korea increased by 1%,China＇s economic growth would rise by 1.798 744%.Based on the error correction mechanism,long-term equilibrium would be obtained by other influence factors,when LnGDPdeviates the long-term equilibrium.The results show that China＇s agricultural export to South Korea is the one-way Granger cause of GDP.And then,proposals about the development of Sino-Korea agricultural products trade are offered.

关 键 词：中韩 农产品贸易 协整 VEC模型 格兰杰原因 

分 类 号：F316[经济管理—产业经济]