模式初值敏感性对中期数值天气预报的影响  

Impact of the Initial Conditions on the Medium-range Numerical Weather Prediction

作　　者：牛嫣静 车玉章 彭新东 范广洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2017年第3期297-303,共7页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575103)

摘　　要：为进一步研究准定常外源强迫条件下中期数值天气预报对初值的敏感性问题,采用ECMWF ERA-interim再分析资料及NCEP再分析资料作为模式初值,利用CAM3.0模式,对1982-2011年1月准定常短波辐射强迫情况下30个天气个例的15天预报结果进行分析,着重讨论预报结果对初值的依赖性,得出以下主要结论:模式确定性预报试验中,在10天内预报技巧显著,初值影响随预报时间延长而降低,10天以上仍有一定预报技巧。初值对15天以内的数值天气预报都有一定的影响,优良初值可提高预报质量。The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0 is used for the hindcast of 30 cases in January of 1982-2011 in order to make better understanding of the sensitivity of the medium-range numerical weather prediction（ NWP） to initial conditions under quasi-steady foreign forcing. The ERA-interim reanalysis data and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data are used as the initial conditions. The dependence of the 15-day numerical results on initial conditions is investigated by inter-comparison of model results with the disturbed reanalysis data. The results of deterministic prediction show a certain forecasting skill in the forecasts within 10-day period. The impact of initial condition decreases with the time integration,and the 15-day NWP shows dependency on the initial conditions,and the forecasting skill might improve significantly with the refinement of initial conditions.

关 键 词：气象学 数值天气预报 初值敏感性 CAM3.0模式 再分析资料 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]