粮食进口对种植结构的影响研究——基于中国2001-2014年省级面板数据的实证分析  

Study on the Impact of Grain Import on Planting Structure in China——An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data Based on 2001-2014

作　　者：李敏[1] 熊德平[2] LI Min XIONG Deping(Business School of Ningbo University, Ningbo Zhejiang Province315211, China School of Finance, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming Yunnan Province650221, China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]云南财经大学金融学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《中国发展》2017年第4期29-37,共9页China Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273144);浙江省软科学重点项目(2013C25047)

摘　　要：粮食种植结构的优化调整有利于增加农民收入,保障有效供给,优化产品结构,促进农业提质增效。该文运用中国2001-2014年省级面板数据,实证检验了中国粮食进口对粮食种植结构的影响。结果显示:中国粮食进口过多对粮食种植结构具有比较显著的负向影响。具体到粮食产品内部,大米进口增加对水稻种植比例具有显著的正向影响,小麦与大豆进口增加对自身的种植结构比例均具有显著的负向影响。该文在对实证结果进行解释的基础上,就把握好粮食进口对粮食种植结构的影响提出了对策建议。The optimal adjustment of grain planting structure is conducive to increasing farmers＇ income,ensuring effective supply,optimizing product structure and promoting agricultural quality improvement. In this paper,the impact of China＇s grain imports on grain planting structure was tested by using provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014 in China. The results showed that grain import had a significant negative effect on the grain planting structure. In the specific inside grain products,the import of rice had a significantly positive effect on the proportion of rice cultivation,and the wheat and soybean imports to their own planting structure was a significantly negative impact. On the basis of explaining the empirical results,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the grain planting structure.

关 键 词：粮食 进口 种植结构 调整 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]