基于MaxEnt和GIS的云南秃杉潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of the Potential Geographic Distribution of Taiwania Flousiana in Yunnan Based on MaxEnt and GIS

作　　者：罗开华[1] 付小勇[2] 周晓[3] LUO Kaihua FU Xiaoyong ZHOU Xiao(Forest Management Branch of Yunnan Forest Inventory and Planning Institute, Kunming 650201, China Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China Yunnan Academy of Forestry, Kunming 650201, China)

机构地区：[1]云南省林业调查规划院营林分院,云南昆明650021 [2]西南林业大学,云南昆明650224 [3]云南省林业科学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《林业调查规划》2017年第4期7-10,共4页Forest Inventory and Planning

摘　　要：为保护云南秃杉种源区以及为规划秃杉人工栽培提供可靠依据,应用Max Ent模型预测国家一级保护物种秃杉的潜在分布区。研究过程中收集了241个秃杉自然分布点和26个环境因子,预测准确性高和结果可信度强。结果表明,秃杉在云南省的潜在适生区面积为232 013 km^2,占国土总面积的48.6%。其中,高适生区主要分布于怒江州、保山市及德宏州,中适生区主要分布于文山州、红河州、临沧市、普洱市,低适生区主要分布于昆明市、曲靖市、昭通市。秃杉现有自然分布区都位于高适生区,中适生区虽然没有自然分布的秃杉林,但适合秃杉生长,是较好的秃杉人工引种区。MaxEnt model was applied to forecast the potential geographic distribution of Taiwania flousi- ana, a first-class national protected species, to provide reliable evidence for protecting provenance region and planning artificial cultivation of Taiwania flousiana. 241 natural distribution points and 26 environ- ment factors were collected in this research which had highly accurate prediction and authentic results. The research showed that the potential suitable area of Taiwania flousiana in yunnan was 232013 km2, accounting for 48.6% of the total land area, among which, the high-level suitable area focused in Nu- jiang, Baoshan and Dehong, the moderate-level suitable area focused in Wenshan, Honghe, Lincang and Puer, and the low-level suitable area focused in Kunming, Qujin and Zhaotong. At present the natural distribution of Taiwaniaflousiana all concentrated in high-level suitable area but wasn＇t in moderate-level suitable area which was suitable for artificial introduction of Taiwania flousiana.

关 键 词：云南秃杉 MaxEnt模型 GIS 适生区 潜在分布区 

分 类 号：S717[农业科学—林学] S791.27