基于累积前景理论的铁路应急预案评估模型研究  

A Railway Emergency Evaluation Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：李延来[1] 杨强[1] LI Yan-lai YANG Qiang(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2017年第3期17-25,共9页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(71371156)

摘　　要：为了充分体现决策过程中决策数据的科学性以及决策者的心理行为特征对决策结果的影响,提出基于改进层次分析法与累积前景理论相结合的铁路应急预案评估模型。首先,建立铁路应急环境下的预案评估综合指标体系;其次,基于均衡化的指标体系运用G1法确定各指标权重;最后,建立基于累积前景理论的铁路应急预案评估的科学模型。案例表明,应用该方法对铁路应急预案进行评估是科学有效且可行的。To investigate the influences of psychological characteristics in decision making process, this paper proposes arailway emergency evaluation model based on the theory of analytic hierarchical process and cumulative prospect. First, the model sets up a comprehensive indexing system to evaluate the railway emergency plans. Second, it determines the weights of indices by the G1 method by the use of a balanced indexing method. Finally, it establishes a new railway emergency evaluation the proposed method model by applying the is applicable for the cumulati prospect theory. A case study shows that effective evaluation of railway emergency plans

关 键 词：铁路应急预案 累积前景理论 指标体系 改进层次分析法 预案评估 

分 类 号：U298.6[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]