基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的淮安市旱灾预测  

Drought Forecast of Huaian City Based on Grey Model GM (1,1)

作　　者：臧庆佩[1] 顾文慧[1] ZANG Qing - pei GU Wen - hui(School of Mathematical Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai＇an Jiangsu 223300, Chin)

机构地区：[1]淮阴师范学院数学科学学院,江苏淮安223300

出　　处：《淮阴工学院学报》2017年第3期93-96,共4页Journal of Huaiyin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11401245);江苏省高等学校大学生创新创业训练计划(201610323043X)

摘　　要：近年来,随着科学技术的不断发展,研究干旱灾害的变化趋势已符合当今科学和自然规律,并具有一定的研究性。利用淮安市统计年鉴上8年的降水量数据建立灰色预测灾变模型,对淮安市干旱年份进行预测,经残差检验以及后验差检验分析,模型精度高达80%以上。并对实测数据进行检验,效果较为理想,并对未来两年的干旱情况进行预测,结果表明不会发生干旱。In recent years, with the continuous development of science and technology, studying the drought has been in line with the laws of science and nature. Therefore, it has research value. A grey system disaster prediction model, which was used to forecast the dry years of Huai＇an, was set up with eight years＇observed rainfall data from Huai＇an statistical yearbook. Then, we made the test of residual errors and after - checking errors. The results show that the model accuracy is more than 80%. At the same time, the test with the observed data was also made and ideal results were obtained. Moreover, the drought possibility in the following two years is predicted, and the results show that there will be no drought happening.

关 键 词：干旱 灰色灾变预测 精度检验 模型 

分 类 号：O211[理学—概率论与数理统计]