香港离岸市场发展对我国宏观经济的影响研究:兼论上海自贸区人民币离岸市场的构建  

The Study about the Impact of Hong Kong's Offshore Market Development on China's Macro-economy: Also about the Construction of Offshore RMB Market in Shanghai Free Trade Area

作　　者：叶亚飞[1] 石建勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2017年第9期38-51,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：2017年度上海市教育委员会科研创新计划人文社会科学重大项目"人民币国际化进程中的货币替代效应与政策选择研究"(项目号:2017-01-07-00-07-E00045)

摘　　要：货币国际化过程必然伴随着离岸市场的高度发展,在人民币国际化进程中,香港离岸人民币市场发挥着至关重要的作用;然而,由于我国资本项目未完全开放、人民币非自由兑换货币等原因,离岸人民币与在岸人民币存在极大的套利空间,香港离岸人民币市场反而成为投机资本的集聚地,从而对我国宏观经济和金融秩序造成干扰。构建涵盖香港离岸人民币市场发展、人民币国际化程度、人民币跨境交易、我国宏观经济发展等在内的指标体系,运用FAVAR模型实证研究香港离岸市场发展对我国宏观经济的影响,并据此提出化解香港离岸人民币市场发展负向影响、构建上海自贸区离岸人民币市场、打造香港-上海全球人民币中心的政策建议。The internationalization of the currency must be accompanied by the high development of the offshore market,Hong Kong's offshore RMB market plays a vital role in the process of RMB internationalization.However,as China's capital projects are not fully open,there is a great arbitrage space between offshore and the onshore RMB.Hong Kong offshore RMB market has become a gathering place for speculative capital,which has caused interference with China's macroeconomic and financial order.This paper constructs an index system that covers the development of Hong Kong offshore market、the degree of RMB internationalization、cross-border RMB crossings and macroeconomic development in China,uses FAVAR model to study the impact of Hong Kong offshore market development on China's macro economy,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：离岸市场 宏观经济 人民币中心 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]