南昌早稻产量预测模型研究  

Study on Prediction Model of Early Rice Yield in Nanchang

作　　者：冯敏玉 黄淑娥[2] FENG Minyu HUANG Shue(Meteorological Bureau of Nanchang, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330038, China Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330046, China)

机构地区：[1]江西省南昌市气象局,江西南昌330038 [2]江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330046

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2017年第9期86-88,100,共4页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：为更好地预测早稻产量,文章统计分析了1994—2010年南昌早稻生长期间的气象因子及早稻产量资料,通过5年滑动平均和多元线性回归的方法建立了南昌市早稻产量的气候预测模型。结果表明,模型预测结果与早稻实际单产拟合率较高,平均精度达97.0%。此模型预测结果可为早稻产量预报分析提供科学依据。For predicting the early rice yield better, the data were analyzed in this paper, which included the meteorological factors and rice yield from 1994 to 2010 in Nanchang, thronghing the method of multiple linear regression and 5 year moving average. The climate prediction model was established. Testing results showed there was a high fitting rate between the model prediction results and actual yield of early rice. The average accuracy was 97.0%. The result indicated that this model could provide scientific basis for early rice yield forecast analysis.

关 键 词：早稻产量 预测模型 5年滑动平均 线性回归 

分 类 号：S511.3[农业科学—作物学]