西藏飞蝗潜在分布对气候变化响应研究  

Effect of potential distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen on climate changes

作　　者：王茹琳 李庆[1] 封传红 石朝鹏 WANG Rulin LI Qing FENG Chuanhong SHI Zhaopeng(School of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Centre, Chengdu 610072, China Plant Protection Station of Sichuan, Chengdu 610041, China General Station of Plant Protection Station of Shandong Province, Jinan 250100, China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学农学院,成都611130 [2]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,成都610072 [3]四川省农业厅植物保护站,成都611130 [4]山东省植物保护总站,济南250000

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2017年第8期60-71,共12页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：四川省科研院所科技成果转化资金项目(15010107)

摘　　要：运用生态位模型软件Max Ent,模拟和预测气候变化背景下大尺度范围西藏飞蝗适生区分布及其变化可能性。基于当前数据和IPCC AR5提出的三种气候情景以及西藏飞蝗分布信息,采用Max Ent生态位模型和Arc GIS预测西藏飞蝗适生区及未来变化趋势,用ROC曲线检测模型精度、刀切法(Jackknife test)筛选主导环境变量。当前气候条件下,西藏飞蝗高适生区主要位于四川省和西藏自治区,中风险区则主要集中在青藏高原东部地区,包括四川西部、西藏东部、云南北部等。西藏飞蝗适生区分布、面积及中心点位置不同。Max Ent模型对未来气候变化条件下西藏飞蝗适生区准确模拟与预测具有潜在应用价值,对虫害综合治理具有重要指导意义。The main objective of the current study was to simulate and predict the future largescale distribution and change possibility of L. migratoria tibetensis by using Max Ent（the maximum entropy model）. Based on current environmental factors, three climate scenarios in the future suggested by IPCC fifth report and current distribution sites of L. migratoria tibetensis, using Max Ent and Arc GIS to predict the potential geographic distribution area and the change trend of L. migratoria tibetensis.Bioclimatic dominant factors were chosen by Jackknife test, while ROC was used to evaluate the simulation. Results showed that, under the present climatic conditions, the highly suitable distribution areas for L. migratoria tibetensis were in Sichuan Province and Xizang autonomous region, while the moderately suitable distribution areas were in west of Sichuan Province, east of Xizang autonomous region, and north of Yunnan Province. Under different emission scenarios in the future, the area, the center and the suitable distribution areas were all the different compared with the current situation.Max Ent model is potentially useful for forecasting adaptive distribution areas of L. migratoria tibetensis under future climate changes, and it will provide an important guidance for the pest integrated management.

关 键 词：西藏飞蝗 MaxEnt模型 气候变化情景 适生区分析 

分 类 号：S435.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]