劳资分配、总需求结构与中国经济增长  

Labor-capital Distribution, Aggregate Demand Structure and China's Economic Growth

作　　者：史晋川[1,2] 刘青[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院 [2]浙江大学民营经济研究中心

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2017年第9期24-32,共9页Zhejiang Social Sciences

摘　　要：劳资分配与经济增长的关系是宏观经济学领域一个十分重要的学术问题,一度成为各经济学流派争论的焦点。本文基于总需求结构视角,运用面板VAR模型,考察了劳资分配对中国经济增长的动态影响及作用路径。研究结论表明:在高增长时期,资本份额对经济增长具有直接推动效应,且会通过总需求结构对经济增长产生间接影响;消费、投资和净出口三类需求渠道在机制的不同阶段具有不同表现;消费需求结构渠道的作用明显强于其它两个渠道;由于劳资分配传导机制的叠加效应,使得中国经济增长表现为明显的资本份额驱动特征。进一步研究发现,随着经济增长放缓和总需求结构变化,资本份额对经济增长的作用将趋于减弱,劳动份额对经济增长的作用将日渐增强。据此阐述研究结论的政策启示。The relationship between labor-capital distribution and economic growth is a very important academic problem in the field of macroeconomics, which has been the focus of contention among various economic schools for a while. From the perspective of aggregate demand structure, this paper uses panel VAR model to investigate the dynamic impacts and transmission mechanism of labor-capital distribution on China's economic growth. The main findings are as follows: In the period of high growth, the capital share has a significant direct impact on economic growth and has an indirect impact on economic growth through the aggregate demand channels; consumer, investment and net export have different performance in different stages of the mechanism. The role of consumer demand channel is stronger than the other two channels. Because of the superposition effect of the transmission mechanisms of labor-capital distribution, China's economic growth has obvious characteristics of capital share driven. Further study shows that the role of capital share tends to weaken with the change of economic development level and aggregate demand structure, and the effect of labor share on economic growth will be stronger. Based on this, the policy implications of the conclusions are discussed.

关 键 词：劳资分配 经济增长 面板VAR 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2