中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析  

Middle-income Transition Probability and Driving Force:Based on Survival Model

作　　者：郭熙保[1] 朱兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年第10期23-42,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"后金融危机时期我国经济发展方式研究"(10JZD0016);武汉大学自主科研项目"中等收入阶段经济发展问题研究"的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:探索中等收入经济体转型概率一般特征及转型动力因素。研究方法:基于K-M估计量估计中等收入阶段停留时间和转型概率,采用生存模型探讨中等收入转型的动力因素。研究发现:中等收入经济体在中等收入阶段的平均停留时间为38年,转型概率呈双峰型分布,即前25年逐年上升,其间的25~40年间下降,40年后提高。人力资本、技术进步和出口结构对中等收入转型概率有显著影响,尤其是中等人力资本。一个经济体从中低收入向中高收入阶段转变过程中,技术进步的重要性逐渐提高,人力资本和出口结构的重要性逐渐减弱。此外,1950~1985年间中等收入转型主要依赖人力资本和技术进步,1985~2015年间中等收入转型主要依赖技术进步和出口结构的专业化。研究创新:首次基于转型概率视角概括中等收入转型一般规律,使用生存分析研究不同时期和不同阶段中等收入转型的动力因素,并区分各因素的相对重要性。研究价值:拓展中等收入转型研究视角,延伸生存分析方法适用范围,研究结论对丰富中等收入阶段的经济学分析具有重要的学术价值和对中等收入国家制定转型战略具有重要的现实意义。Research Objectives： This paper analyzes the characteristics of middle income transition from the perspective of staying time, and explore the driving forces of different middle-in- come stages. Research Methods： Based on K-M estimator, this paper calculates the survival rate and hazard rate of middle-income stage and examines the relative importance of different factors during different periods. Research Findings： The average staying time of middle-in- come economies is about 38 years, and the distribution of transition rate is ＂hump-shaped＂. This distribution presents that the middle-income transition rate increases at the beginning 25 years, then decreases between 25~40 years and rises up again after 40 years. Human capital, especially the medium level human capital, together with technological progress and export structure are key factors in the middle-income transition. Lower-middle income stage depends more on human capital, while the upper-middle income stage depends more on technological progress. In addition, the driving forces for transition during different periods are different. during 1950~1985 middle income economies transitions rely more on human capital and tech- nological progress, as opposed to technological progress and export structure during 1985~ 2015. Research Innovations： Based on survival model, this paper analyzes the economic tran- sition probability and driving forces for middle-income economies creatively and comprehen- sively. Research Value： This paper contributes to expanding the perspective of middle-in- come transition research and the scope of survival model application.

关 键 词：中等收入转型 生存模型 人力资本 技术进步 出口结构 

分 类 号：F112.1[经济管理—国际贸易]