设施蔬菜生产的安全边际及利润敏感性分析  

Margin of Safety and Profit Sensitivity Analysis of Protected Vegetable Production

作　　者：魏德云 陆军 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学暨阳学院,浙江诸暨311800

出　　处：《北方园艺》2017年第18期192-197,共6页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(15YJCZH183);浙江省自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(LQ14C130004)

摘　　要：为探讨设施蔬菜生产的成本结构、安全边际和利润影响因素,以2016年浙江省临安市30家大棚蔬菜种植户调研数据为样本,分析了大棚蔬菜种植的成本构成、盈亏临界点,以及单价、销售量、单位变动成本、固定成本等利润敏感性系数,对设施蔬菜生产的盈亏平衡及利润分析方法进行了有益探索。结果表明:在大棚蔬菜种植成本结构中,大棚建造成本和人工费所占的比重较大,其次是肥料费、薄膜费、农药费、种苗费,最少的是农机作业费。盈亏临界销售量为1 265.02kg,超出该盈亏临界点的部分为安全边际量。大棚蔬菜种植利润影响因素的敏感系数由大到小依次为单价>销售量>单位变动成本>固定成本总额。由多因素敏感性分析可预测得到2017年的大棚蔬菜种植利润。This study took the survey data of 30 greenhouse vegetable farmers in Lin′an city,Zhejiang Province in 2016 as sample,the cost structure,break even point,margin of safety and sensitivity coefficient of profit influencing factors in the amenities vegetable production were analyzed.The results showed that the greenhouse construction cost and labor cost accounted for a large proportion in the cost structure of protected vegetable planting,then followed by fertilizer cost,plastic sheeting cost,pesticide cost,and seedlings cost,the least was agricultural machinery operation cost.The descending ranking of sensitivity coefficient of profit influencing factors in the greenhouse vegetable planting were as follows,unit price,sales volume,unit variable cost,total fixed cost.The volume of sales at break even point was 1 265.02 kg,beyond this point was the safety margin.The multiple factor sensitivity analysis could predict the profit of protected vegetable production in 2017.This research provided an explore way to analyze and solve the profit and loss balance problems for protected vegetable production.

关 键 词：设施蔬菜 盈亏临界点 安全边际 利润敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] S626[农业科学—园艺学]