GRAPES_Meso中尺度模式在新疆沙漠地区的检验与评估  

Verification and Assessment of GRAPES_Meso Model in Desert Regions of Xinjiang

作　　者：孙婵 徐国强 Sun Chan Xu Guoqiang(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 National Meteorological Center/Numerical Weather Prediction Center of CMA, Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气象中心/数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技》2017年第4期658-668,共11页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41590874);公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201306066)资助

摘　　要：使用GRAPES中尺度模式对中国新疆南部的塔里木盆地2013年1、4、7、10月逐日的天气过程进行数值模拟,并与站点的实况资料对比分析,结果表明,GRAPES模式对沙漠地区的温度、风场、降水都有一定的预报能力,但也存在较明显的预报误差。GRAPES模式可以大致的预报出塔里木盆地地区2 m温度的日变化趋势,但GRAPES模拟的温度极值还存在较明显的误差;GRAPES模式对10m风场的预报,在风速较大的1月、4月和10月预报效果较好,基本可以预测出沙漠地区的风速和风向,但在风速很小的7月,模式的预报效果不理想;GRAPES模式对沙漠地区的降水预报与实况相比还存在明显的偏差,主要表现为降水空报率较高,降水中心也存在一定的偏差;GRAPES模式在沙漠地区对高空温度的预报呈现出低层温度预报误差较大,高空相对较小的特征。In order to verify and assess GRAPES more comprehensively,this research attempts to simulate the weather processes of Tarim Basin,southern Xinjiang,China in January,April,July and October 2013 by days,and compares those with actual data from monitoring stations in order to analyze the prediction capability of GRAPES.The results show that GRAPES is able to predict 2 m temperatures,wind and rainfall in desert areas,but there exist errors.GRAPES can predict the daily trend of 2 m temperatures in Tarim Basin but the errors of the extremum values are obvious.As for the prediction of wind field,GPAPES performs better in January,April and October when wind speed is higher,which means it basically is able to predict wind direction in desert areas.However,in July,when the wind speed is low,GRAPES performs unsatisfactorily.The problems in precipitation prediction mainly lie in greater false prediction rate,and inaccuracy also occurs in the prediction of precipitation centers.

关 键 词：GRAPES模式 沙漠地区 检验评估 

分 类 号：P437[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]