雾霾治理及其经济社会效应:基于“禁煤区”政策的可计算一般均衡分析  

Haze Governance and It's Economic and Social Effect:An Analysis of CGE Model Based on “Coal Restricted Area” Policy

作　　者：姜春海[1] 宋志永 冯泽 JIANG Chun-hai SONG Zhi-yong FENG Ze(Centre for Industrial and Business Organization of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2017年第9期44-62,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"‘输煤转输电’:规模结构优化;政策渐进效应与利益平衡机制"(批准号71673039);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"输煤抑或输电:煤电能源输送路径选择与政策设计"(批准号15YJA790026)

摘　　要："禁煤区"政策对于减少煤炭消费、促进治霾减排具有重要作用。本文将京津冀三地划为核心"禁煤区"、鲁豫两省划为外围"禁煤区",利用CGE模型模拟了不同禁煤力度对各地治霾减排的效果及经济社会影响。结果表明,禁煤力度越大,各地治霾减排效果越好,同时经济社会压力也越大。不同治霾减排的目标需要相应禁煤力度来支持。短期来看,北京、天津雾霾治理需求迫切,可以完全禁煤且经济社会冲击不大。河北、山东、河南三省份适宜的禁煤力度区间分别为[16%,31%]、[32%,35%]和[20%,27%],此时三省份可以承受经济压力,但就业压力需要外来支撑。长期来看,河北、山东、河南三省份适宜的禁煤力度区间分别为[43%,72%]、[62%,65%]和[34%,57%],此时三省份所承受的经济社会冲击巨大,可能需要5—8年左右的时间消化吸收。据此,本文提出了禁煤政策力度应有差异、稳步扩大"禁煤区"范围、构建中央财政补贴机制、治霾减排多种政策组合、积极实施煤炭替代战略的政策建议。＂Coal Restricted Area＂ policy has significant effect in reducing coal consumption, and hazing pollution and emission. In the paper, Beijing, Tianjin and Heibei are defined as ＂Core Coal Restricted Area＂, while Shandong and Henan are regarded as ＂External Coal Restricted Area＂. In the meantime, computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is adopted to simulate haze governance and emission reduction effect and economic and social influences of different coal restriction intensity. The results show that the stricter of coal restriction, the better haze governance and the more pressure of economic and social development. The simulation results also show that in the short term, complete coal restriction policy can be implemented in both Beijing and Tianjin. However, the ranges of proper coal restricted ratio in Hebei, Shandong and Henan should be [16%,31%], [32%,35%] and [20%,27%], which indicates that these provinces can withstand economic pressure, but need external employment support. In the long term, the proper coal restricted ratio ranges of Hebei, Shandong and Henan should be [43%, 72%], [62%,65%] and [34%,57%], which means that these provinces face huge economic and social pressure and may need 5-8 years to adjust. Based on above findings, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations, including differentiating the intensity of coal restricted policy, gradually expanding the range of ＂Coal Restricted Area＂, building central finance subsidy mechanism, combining a variety of haze governance and emission reduction policy, and actively implementing coal substitution strategy.

关 键 词：“禁煤区”政策 治霾减排 经济增长 就业 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]