省际人口迁移与产业劳动效率间的动态关系分析  

Analysis on Dynamic Relationship between Interprovincial Migration and Industrial Labor Efficiency

作　　者：雷小乔 杜子芳[2] Lei Xiaoqiao Du Zifang(, National Economics Research Center, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学国民经济研究中心,广州510320 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第18期98-103,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC012)

摘　　要：文章基于全国各省1992—2012年的省外户籍人口迁入数据和各产业劳均增加值数据,建立了PS-VAR模型以分析省际人口迁移与各产业劳动效率间的相互影响关系。为了解在不同经济发展程度下,上述变量间关系是否存在不同,还将各省份分为较发达省份和较不发达省份,并分别建立PSVAR模型,从模型的参数估计结果、脉冲响应函数和方差分析结果三个方面出发,比较了全国模型、较发达省份模型和较不发达省份模型的异同。Based on the data of migration and the added value of labor of all provinces in China from 1992 to 2012, this paper builds a PSVAR model to analyze the interaction effect between interprovincial migration and industrial labor efficiency. In order to explore whether exists the relationship between these variables changes with the level of economic development, the paper divides all the provinces into the more developed and the less developed, and establishes the PSVAR model respectively. The paper also starting from such three aspects as the model＇ s parameter estimation results, the impulse response function and the variance analysis results, compares the similarities and differences between the national model, the model for the more developed provinces and that for the less developed provinces.

关 键 词：人口迁移 劳动效率 PSVAR 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]