山火灾害引发的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法及应用  

A Real-time Analysis Approach and Its Application for Transmission-line Trip Risk due to Wildfire Disaster

作　　者：周志宇 艾欣 陆佳政 徐勋建 郭俊 刘行 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206 [2]电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室(国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心),湖南省长沙市410007

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2017年第18期5321-5330,共10页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2015AA050102);国家自然科学基金项目(513111122);湖南省电力公司科技项目(5216A01500RJ);电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室开放项目~~

摘　　要：近年来,山火灾害已成为输电线路跳闸停运的重要原因之一。现有的山火监测方法无法广域实时监测火点和获取线路所处微地形区域的小尺度气象数据,从而难以准确实时地分析山火条件下线路跳闸风险。据此,该文提出一种考虑山火灾害的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法。首先,基于同步卫星技术实现了输电线路附近山火的实时监测,其次,提出了多重嵌套的中小尺度气象预报模式以解决气象数值预测精确度与时效性的矛盾,再次,提出了综合考虑降水、植被、风场等各种环境因素的线路跳闸概率实时计算模型,最后,以湖南省历史山火高发期的案例验证了模型的准确性,结果表明,该方法能够实时、准确地分析输电线路山火跳闸风险,为大范围山火灾害下电网的安全运行和应急处置提供重要的数据支撑。Recently, wildfires have become a key menace to the safe operation of electrical transmission systems （ETS）. The existing fire monitoring methods are unable to obtain wide-area fire points and micro-scale meteorology data of the micro-topography area near the transmission lines in real-time, thus cannot accurately calculate the trip risk of transmission lines due to wildfires in real-time. A real-time analysis approach for transmission-line trip risk considering wildfire disaster was proposed. First of all, a dynamic threshold fire-point identify method for small size wildfires based on synchronous satellite was presented, and then a meso-micro scale weather forecast method of multi-nested mesh model was put forward to solve the conflicts between numerical accuracy and tide timeliness, also, a real-time transmission-line trip risk analysis approach which considers various environmental factors such as precipitation, vegetation and wind was proposed. Finally, the approach was applied to a high incidence period of wildfires in Hunan province as a case study, the analysis results show that the proposed approach can effectively analyze the trip risk of transmission-lines due to wildfires in real-time, and also provide supportive data to the safe operation of power grids under circumstance of large scale wildfires.

关 键 词：山火灾害 同步卫星 气象因子 输电线路跳闸 实时监测 风险分析 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]